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Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias S. Schmidt

    (Energy Politics Group, ETH Zurich)

  • Bjarne Steffen

    (Energy Politics Group, ETH Zurich)

  • Florian Egli

    (Energy Politics Group, ETH Zurich)

  • Michael Pahle

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Oliver Tietjen

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
    TU Berlin)

  • Ottmar Edenhofer

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
    TU Berlin
    Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change)

Abstract

Increasing the use of renewable energy (RE) is a key enabler of sustainable energy transitions. While the costs of RE have substantially declined in the past, here we show that rising interest rates (IRs) can reverse the trend of decreasing RE costs, particularly in Europe with its historically low IRs. In Germany, IRs recovering to pre-financial crisis levels in 5 years could add 11% and 25% to the levelized cost of electricity for solar photovoltaics and onshore wind, respectively, with financing costs accounting for about one-third of total levelized cost of electricity. As fossil-fuel-based electricity costs are much less and potentially even negatively affected by rising IRs, the viability of RE investments would be markedly deteriorated. On the basis of these findings, we argue that rising IRs could jeopardize the sustainable energy transition and we propose a self-adjusting thermostatic policy strategy to safeguard against rising IRs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias S. Schmidt & Bjarne Steffen & Florian Egli & Michael Pahle & Oliver Tietjen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 879-885, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:9:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0375-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0375-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Đukan, Mak & Kitzing, Lena, 2023. "A bigger bang for the buck: The impact of risk reduction on renewable energy support payments in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Pugazhendhi, Rishi & Jamal, Taskin & Dyduch, Joanna & Arif, M.T. & Manoj Kumar, Nallapaneni & Shafiullah, GM & Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Nadarajah, Mithulananthan, 2021. "Envisioning the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through the lens of energy sustainability (SDG 7) in the post-COVID-19 world," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Yang, Jun & Hao, Yun & Feng, Chao, 2021. "A race between economic growth and carbon emissions: What play important roles towards global low-carbon development?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2020. "Neither crowding in nor out: Public direct investment mobilising private investment into renewable electricity projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Melliger, Marc & Chappin, Emile, 2022. "Phasing out support schemes for renewables in neighbouring countries: An agent-based model with investment preferences," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Chiara Colesanti Senni & Maria Sole Pagliari & Jens van ‘t Klooster, 2023. "The CO2 content of the TLTRO III scheme and its greening," Working Papers 792, DNB.
    7. Brown, T. & Reichenberg, L., 2021. "Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy action," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Tu, Qiang & Mo, Jianlei & Liu, Zhuoran & Gong, Chunxu & Fan, Ying, 2021. "Using green finance to counteract the adverse effects of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable energy investment-The case of offshore wind power in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2024. "Monetary policy and renewable energy production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Yang, Chunmeng & Bu, Siqi & Fan, Yi & Wan, Wayne Xinwei & Wang, Ruoheng & Foley, Aoife, 2023. "Data-driven prediction and evaluation on future impact of energy transition policies in smart regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    11. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek & Sevindik, Irem, 2022. "How do macroeconomic dynamics affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the power sector in developing economies: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    13. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark & Serebriakova, Alexandra, 2021. "Finance in global transition scenarios: Mapping investments by technology into finance needs by source," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Mukherjee, Agneev & Bruijnincx, Pieter & Junginger, Martin, 2023. "Techno-economic competitiveness of renewable fuel alternatives in the marine sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan & Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev & Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2021. "Renewable Energy Deployment and COVID-19 Measures for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Rao, Amar & Kumar, Satish & Gupta, Prashant & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of interest rate volatility on Asian energy companies: A comparative study of fossil and renewable sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Boyang Chen & Canghong Wang, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Circular economy and biomass utilization: economic prospect for sustainable energy transition in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.
    18. Egli, Florian & Orgland, Nikolai & Taylor, Michael & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Steffen, Bjarne, 2023. "Estimating the cost of capital for solar PV projects using auction results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    19. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yahya, Farzan, 2024. "Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Egli, Florian, 2020. "Renewable energy investment risk: An investigation of changes over time and the underlying drivers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs, 2021. "LCOE: A Useful and Valid Indicator—Replica to James Loewen and Adam Szymanski," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-8, January.
    22. Steffen, Bjarne & Karplus, Valerie & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2022. "State ownership and technology adoption: The case of electric utilities and renewable energy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(6).

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