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Scope and limitations of drought management within complex human–natural systems

Author

Listed:
  • William K. Jaeger

    (Oregon State University)

  • Adell Amos

    (School of Law, University of Oregon)

  • David R. Conklin

    (Oregon Freshwater Simulations)

  • Christian Langpap

    (Oregon State University)

  • Kathleen Moore

    (School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington)

  • Andrew J. Plantinga

    (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California)

Abstract

Growing evidence suggests that drought risk is increasing due to climate change. Evaluation of potential policy responses involves understanding complex economic tradeoffs, hydrologic and social feedbacks, and recognizing how combinations of interventions may have complementary or conflicting effects. This paper explores the potential that coupled human–natural system models have to address these questions. We employ a detailed model of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, to evaluate the effectiveness of a variety of potential drought policy interventions to conserve or reallocate water during a simulated near-term drought year. The drought year is characterized by early-season low flows that make it impossible to meet water demands. The results indicate that while the policies are effective at conserving water, they have limited ability to mitigate the shortages because the timing and location of conservation responses do not match the timing and location of the shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • William K. Jaeger & Adell Amos & David R. Conklin & Christian Langpap & Kathleen Moore & Andrew J. Plantinga, 2019. "Scope and limitations of drought management within complex human–natural systems," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 710-717, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0326-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0326-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Amanda R. Bourne & John Bruce & Meredith M. Guthrie & Li-Ann Koh & Kaylene Parker & Stanley Mastrantonis & Igor Veljanoski, 2023. "Identifying areas of high drought risk in southwest Western Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1361-1385, September.
    2. Kuiper, Jan Jurjen & Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam & Berbés-Blázquez, Marta & Rozas, Elisa Oteros & Fredström, Linna & Psiuk, Kinga & Savu, Codruța & Kautsky, Robert & Guerry, Anne & Carpenter, Stephen R., 2023. "Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios," SocArXiv v4ukj, Center for Open Science.

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