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The timing and causes of famines in Europe

Author

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  • Guido Alfani

    (Bocconi University)

  • Cormac Ó Gráda

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

Studies of modern famines tend to consider them ‘man-made’, resulting from war or from adverse shocks to food entitlements. This view has increasingly been applied to historical famines, against the earlier Malthusian orthodoxy. We use a novel dataset and temporal scan analysis to identify periods when famines were particularly frequent in Europe, from ca. 1250 to the present. Up to 1710, the main clusters of famines occurred in periods of historically high population density. This relationship disappears after 1710. We analyse in detail the famines in England, France and Italy during 1300–1850, and find strong evidence that before 1710 high population pressure on resources was by far the most frequent remote cause of famines (while the proximate cause was almost invariably meteorological). We conclude, in contrast with the currently prevailing view, that most preindustrial famines were the result of production, not distribution issues. Only after 1710 did man-made famines become prevalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Alfani & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "The timing and causes of famines in Europe," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(6), pages 283-288, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:1:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-018-0078-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0078-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    2. Antman, Francisca M. & Flynn, James M., 2024. "When beer is safer than water: Beer availability and mortality from waterborne illnesses," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Guido Alfani & Hector García Montero, 2022. "Wealth inequality in pre‐industrial England: A long‐term view (late thirteenth to sixteenth centuries)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1314-1348, November.
    4. Robert Stelter & David de la Croix & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Leaders And Laggards In Life Expectancy Among European Scholars From The Sixteenth To The Early Twentieth Century," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Sullivan, Dylan & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "Capitalism and extreme poverty: a global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117731, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Tiia‐Maria Pasanen & Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2022. "A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1282-1302, November.
    7. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Andrea Seim & Heli Huhtamaa, 2021. "Climate and society in European history," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    8. Miikka Voutilainen, 2022. "Income inequality and famine mortality: Evidence from the Finnish famine of the 1860s," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 503-529, May.

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