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Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Beckage

    (University of Vermont
    University of Vermont
    University of Vermont)

  • Frances C. Moore

    (University of California)

  • Katherine Lacasse

    (Rhode Island College)

Abstract

Climate change and other challenges to the stability and functioning of natural and managed environmental systems are driven by increasing anthropogenic domination of the Earth. Models to forecast the trajectory of climate change and to identify pathways to sustainability require representation of human behaviour and its feedbacks with the climate system. Social climate models (SCMs) are an emerging class of models that embed human behaviour in climate models. We survey existing SCMs and make recommendations for how to integrate models of human behaviour and climate. We suggest a framework for representing human behaviour that consists of cognition, contagion and a behavioural response. Cognition represents the human processing of information around climate change; contagion represents the spread of information, beliefs and behaviour through social networks; and response is the resultant behaviour or action. This framework allows for biases, habituation and other cognitive processes that shape human perception of climate change as well as the influence of social norms, social learning and other social processes on the spread of information and factors that shape decision-making and behaviour. SCMs move beyond the inclusion of human activities in climate models to the representation of human behaviour that determines the magnitude, sign and character of these activities. The development of SCMs is a challenging but important next step in the evolution of Earth system models.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Beckage & Frances C. Moore & Katherine Lacasse, 2022. "Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1493-1502, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:6:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1038_s41562-022-01478-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01478-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    2. Teresa Lackner & Luca E. Fierro & Patrick Mellacher, 2024. "Opinion Dynamics meet Agent-based Climate Economics: An Integrated Analysis of Carbon Taxation," LEM Papers Series 2024/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Lopolito, Antonio & Caferra, Rocco & Morone, Piergiuseppe, 2024. "Contagion, fast and low: Modeling social influence in socio-ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
    4. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol & Changjing Ji, 2024. "Endogenous Preference for Nonmarket Goods in Carbon Abatement Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 235-251, December.

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