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Paranoia and belief updating during the COVID-19 crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Praveen Suthaharan

    (Yale University)

  • Erin J. Reed

    (Yale School of Medicine
    Yale School of Medicine)

  • Pantelis Leptourgos

    (Yale University)

  • Joshua G. Kenney

    (Yale University)

  • Stefan Uddenberg

    (University of Chicago)

  • Christoph D. Mathys

    (Aarhus University
    University of Zurich
    Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
    Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati)

  • Leib Litman

    (CloudResearch)

  • Jonathan Robinson

    (CloudResearch)

  • Aaron J. Moss

    (CloudResearch)

  • Jane R. Taylor

    (Yale University
    Yale University)

  • Stephanie M. Groman

    (Yale University)

  • Philip R. Corlett

    (Yale University
    Yale University
    Yale University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has made the world seem less predictable. Such crises can lead people to feel that others are a threat. Here, we show that the initial phase of the pandemic in 2020 increased individuals’ paranoia and made their belief updating more erratic. A proactive lockdown made people’s belief updating less capricious. However, state-mandated mask-wearing increased paranoia and induced more erratic behaviour. This was most evident in states where adherence to mask-wearing rules was poor but where rule following is typically more common. Computational analyses of participant behaviour suggested that people with higher paranoia expected the task to be more unstable. People who were more paranoid endorsed conspiracies about mask-wearing and potential vaccines and the QAnon conspiracy theories. These beliefs were associated with erratic task behaviour and changed priors. Taken together, we found that real-world uncertainty increases paranoia and influences laboratory task behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Praveen Suthaharan & Erin J. Reed & Pantelis Leptourgos & Joshua G. Kenney & Stefan Uddenberg & Christoph D. Mathys & Leib Litman & Jonathan Robinson & Aaron J. Moss & Jane R. Taylor & Stephanie M. Gr, 2021. "Paranoia and belief updating during the COVID-19 crisis," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 1190-1202, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01176-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01176-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Simão & Campos, Carlos & Marinho, Beatriz & Rocha, Susana & Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo & Barbosa Rocha, Nuno, 2022. "What drives beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories? The role of psychotic-like experiences and confinement-related factors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Fujio Toriumi & Takeshi Sakaki & Tetsuro Kobayashi & Mitsuo Yoshida, 2024. "Anti-vaccine rabbit hole leads to political representation: the case of Twitter in Japan," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 405-423, April.
    3. Yuan, Hang & Long, Qinyi & Huang, Guanglv & Huang, Liqin & Luo, Siyang, 2022. "Different roles of interpersonal trust and institutional trust in COVID-19 pandemic control," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Kampling, Hanna & Riedl, David & Hettich, Nora & Lampe, Astrid & Nolte, Tobias & Zara, Sandra & Ernst, Mareike & Brähler, Elmar & Sachser, Cedric & Fegert, Jörg M. & Gingelmaier, Stephan & Fonagy, Pet, 2024. "To trust or not to trust in the thrall of the COVID-19 pandemic: Conspiracy endorsement and the role of adverse childhood experiences, epistemic trust, and personality functioning," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    5. Vincent Bouttier & Salomé Leclercq & Renaud Jardri & Sophie Denève, 2024. "A normative approach to radicalization in social networks," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1071-1093, April.
    6. Kohnert, Dirk, 2023. "L'impact de QAnon et d'autres idéologies du complot sur l'Afrique subsaharienne à l'ère du capitalisme mondial [QAnon and other conspiracy ideologies' impact on Sub-Saharan Africa in the age of Glo," MPRA Paper 115950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kohnert, Dirk, 2023. "QAnon and other conspiracy ideologies’ impact on Sub-Saharan Africa in the age of Global capitalism," MPRA Paper 115917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Galgali, Madhwa S. & Helm, Peter J. & Arndt, Jamie, 2023. "Feeling too isolated to be vaccinated? The contributing role of subjective interpersonal isolation factors towards COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).

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