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Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • David L. McCollum

    (Electric Power Research Institute
    University of Tennessee)

  • Ajay Gambhir

    (Imperial College)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Imperial College
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Charlie Wilson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Scenarios are the primary tool for examining how current decisions shape the future, but the future is affected as much by out-of-ordinary extremes as by generally expected trends. Energy modellers can study extremes both by incorporating them directly within models and by using complementary off-model analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • David L. McCollum & Ajay Gambhir & Joeri Rogelj & Charlie Wilson, 2020. "Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 104-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:5:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1038_s41560-020-0555-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0555-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    2. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    3. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Panos, Evangelos & Glynn, James & Kypreos, Socrates & Lehtilä, Antti & Yue, Xiufeng & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Daniels, David & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Siskos, Eleftherios & Burgherr, Peter, 2022. "Multicriteria decision support for the evaluation of electricity supply resilience: Exploration of interacting criteria," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 611-626.
    7. Anderson, Edward & Zachary, Stan, 2023. "Minimax decision rules for planning under uncertainty: Drawbacks and remedies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(2), pages 789-800.
    8. Johnson, Elliott & Betts-Davies, Sam & Barrett, John, 2023. "Comparative analysis of UK net-zero scenarios: The role of energy demand reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Ross, Andrew G. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J Kim, 2024. "Labour market dynamics in the era of technological advancements: The system-wide impacts of labour augmenting technological change," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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