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Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar

Author

Listed:
  • Felana Angella Ihantamalala

    (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar
    UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UR, UAG), Station SEAS-Ol, Saint-Pierre)

  • Vincent Herbreteau

    (UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UR, UAG), Station SEAS-Ol, Saint-Pierre)

  • Feno M. J. Rakotoarimanana

    (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar)

  • Jean Marius Rakotondramanga

    (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar)

  • Simon Cauchemez

    (Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur
    Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA3012
    Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur)

  • Bienvenue Rahoilijaona

    (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar)

  • Gwenaëlle Pennober

    (UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UR, UAG), Station SEAS-Ol, Saint-Pierre)

  • Caroline O. Buckee

    (Harvard School of Public Health
    Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Christophe Rogier

    (Unité de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses et tropicales émergentes (URMITE)
    Institute of Biomedical Research of the French Armed Forces (IRBA))

  • C. J. E. Metcalf

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Amy Wesolowski

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

Abstract

In areas where malaria epidemiology is spatially and temporally heterogeneous, human-mediated parasite importation can result in non-locally acquired clinical cases and outbreaks in low-transmission areas. Using mobility estimates derived from the mobile phone data and spatial malaria prevalence data, we identify travel routes relevant to malaria transmission in Madagascar. We find that the primary hubs of parasite importation are in a spatially connected area of the central highlands. Surprisingly, sources of these imported infections are not spatially clustered. We then related these source locations directly to clinical cases in the low-transmission area of the capital. We find that in the capital, a major sink, the primary sources of infection are along the more populated coastal areas, although these sources are seasonally variable. Our results have implications for targeting interventions at source locations to achieve local or national malaria control goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Felana Angella Ihantamalala & Vincent Herbreteau & Feno M. J. Rakotoarimanana & Jean Marius Rakotondramanga & Simon Cauchemez & Bienvenue Rahoilijaona & Gwenaëlle Pennober & Caroline O. Buckee & Chris, 2018. "Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-06290-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06290-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Klein & Anjarasoa Rasoanomenjanahary, 2024. "Climate change and health transitions: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(6), pages 155-190.

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