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Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

Author

Listed:
  • Michael T. White

    (Institut Pasteur)

  • Patrick Walker

    (Imperial College London)

  • Stephan Karl

    (Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research
    Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research
    Melbourne University)

  • Manuel W. Hetzel

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Tim Freeman

    (Rotarians Against Malaria)

  • Andreea Waltmann

    (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research
    Melbourne University)

  • Moses Laman

    (Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research)

  • Leanne J. Robinson

    (Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research
    Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research
    Melbourne University
    Burnet Institute)

  • Azra Ghani

    (Imperial College London)

  • Ivo Mueller

    (Institut Pasteur
    Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research
    Melbourne University)

Abstract

Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. White & Patrick Walker & Stephan Karl & Manuel W. Hetzel & Tim Freeman & Andreea Waltmann & Moses Laman & Leanne J. Robinson & Azra Ghani & Ivo Mueller, 2018. "Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05860-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05860-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad S Hossain & Robert J Commons & Nicholas M Douglas & Kamala Thriemer & Bereket H Alemayehu & Chanaki Amaratunga & Anupkumar R Anvikar & Elizabeth A Ashley & Puji B S Asih & Verena I Carrara & , 2020. "The risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after P. falciparum malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-26, November.
    2. Ndii, Meksianis Z. & Adi, Yudi Ari, 2021. "Understanding the effects of individual awareness and vector controls on malaria transmission dynamics using multiple optimal control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    3. Li, Shangge & Jian, Jinfeng & Poopal, Rama Krishnan & Chen, Xinyu & He, Yaqi & Xu, Hongbin & Yu, Huimin & Ren, Zongming, 2022. "Mathematical modeling in behavior responses: The tendency-prediction based on a persistence model on real-time data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).

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