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Divergent global-scale temperature effects from identical aerosols emitted in different regions

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  • Geeta G. Persad

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Ken Caldeira

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

Abstract

The distribution of anthropogenic aerosols’ climate effects depends on the geographic distribution of the aerosols themselves. Yet many scientific and policy discussions ignore the role of emission location when evaluating aerosols’ climate impacts. Here, we present new climate model results demonstrating divergent climate responses to a fixed amount and composition of aerosol—emulating China’s present-day emissions—emitted from 8 key geopolitical regions. The aerosols’ global-mean cooling effect is fourteen times greater when emitted from the highest impact emitting region (Western Europe) than from the lowest (India). Further, radiative forcing, a widely used climate response proxy, fails as an effective predictor of global-mean cooling for national-scale aerosol emissions in our simulations; global-mean forcing-to-cooling efficacy differs fivefold depending on emitting region. This suggests that climate accounting should differentiate between aerosols emitted from different countries and that aerosol emissions’ evolving geographic distribution will impact the global-scale magnitude and spatial distribution of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Geeta G. Persad & Ken Caldeira, 2018. "Divergent global-scale temperature effects from identical aerosols emitted in different regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05838-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05838-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

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