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Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Author

Listed:
  • D. S. Hamilton

    (University of Leeds
    Cornell University)

  • S. Hantson

    (Atmospheric Environmental Research
    University of California Irvine)

  • C. E. Scott

    (University of Leeds)

  • J. O. Kaplan

    (ARVE Research SARL
    University of Oxford
    Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History)

  • K. J. Pringle

    (University of Leeds)

  • L. P. Nieradzik

    (Lund University
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • A. Rap

    (University of Leeds)

  • G. A. Folberth

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • D. V. Spracklen

    (University of Leeds)

  • K. S. Carslaw

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750–2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • D. S. Hamilton & S. Hantson & C. E. Scott & J. O. Kaplan & K. J. Pringle & L. P. Nieradzik & A. Rap & G. A. Folberth & D. V. Spracklen & K. S. Carslaw, 2018. "Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05592-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Bingqing Zhang & Nathan J. Chellman & Jed O. Kaplan & Loretta J. Mickley & Takamitsu Ito & Xuan Wang & Sophia M. Wensman & Drake McCrimmon & Jørgen Peder Steffensen & Joseph R. McConnell & Pengfei Liu, 2024. "Improved biomass burning emissions from 1750 to 2010 using ice core records and inverse modeling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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