IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v9y2018i1d10.1038_s41467-018-05230-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Roberto Rosà

    (Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit
    Fondazione Edmund Mach)

  • Mauro Teixeira

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

Abstract

The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month−1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2–79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Guzzetta & Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo & Roberto Rosà & Mauro Teixeira & Stefano Merler, 2018. "Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05230-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05230-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Romeo-Aznar & Laís Picinini Freitas & Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz & Aaron A. King & Mercedes Pascual, 2022. "Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05230-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.