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Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Roberto Rosà

    (Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit
    Fondazione Edmund Mach)

  • Mauro Teixeira

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

Abstract

The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month−1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2–79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Guzzetta & Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo & Roberto Rosà & Mauro Teixeira & Stefano Merler, 2018. "Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05230-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Romeo-Aznar & Laís Picinini Freitas & Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz & Aaron A. King & Mercedes Pascual, 2022. "Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Vinyas Harish & Felipe J. Colón-González & Filipe R. R. Moreira & Rory Gibb & Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Megan Davis & Robert C. Reiner & David M. Pigott & T. Alex Perkins & Daniel J. Weiss & Isaac I. Bog, 2024. "Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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