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Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Zhu

    (University of California)

  • Jian Zhang

    (East China Normal University
    Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security)

  • Shuli Niu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chengjin Chu

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Yiqi Luo

    (Northern Arizona University)

Abstract

Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha–1 (2000–2016) to 105 Mg ha–1 (2020 s), 128 Mg ha–1 (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha–1 (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Zhu & Jian Zhang & Shuli Niu & Chengjin Chu & Yiqi Luo, 2018. "Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05132-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05132-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Morris & Angelo Gurgel & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon Kheshgi & Sergey Paltsev, 2024. "Mutual reinforcement of land-based carbon dioxide removal and international emissions trading in deep decarbonization scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay & Pranabes Dutta & Naveen Hari & Bipasha Maity, 2023. "Female Legislators and Forest Conservation in India," Working Papers 104, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    3. Kailiang Yu & Philippe Ciais & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Zhihua Liu & Han Y. H. Chen & Jonathan Barichivich & Craig D. Allen & Hui Yang & Yuanyuan Huang & Ashley P. Ballantyne, 2022. "Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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