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Immediate action is the best strategy when facing uncertain climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Abou Chakra

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology
    University of Toronto)

  • Silke Bumann

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology)

  • Hanna Schenk

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology)

  • Andreas Oschlies

    (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)

  • Arne Traulsen

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology)

Abstract

Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate change is a collective problem that requires global cooperation. However, achieving cooperation is difficult since benefits are obtained in the future. The so-called collective-risk game, devised to capture dangerous climate change, showed that catastrophic economic losses promote cooperation when individuals know the timing of a single climatic event. In reality, the impact and timing of climate change is not certain; moreover, recurrent events are possible. Thus, we devise a game where the risk of a collective loss can recur across multiple rounds. We find that wait and see behavior is successful only if players know when they need to contribute to avoid danger and if contributions can eliminate the risks. In all other cases, act quickly is more successful, especially under uncertainty and the possibility of repeated losses. Furthermore, we incorporate influential factors such as wealth inequality and heterogeneity in risks. Even under inequality individuals should contribute early, as long as contributions have the potential to decrease risk. Most importantly, we find that catastrophic scenarios are not necessary to induce such immediate collective action.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Abou Chakra & Silke Bumann & Hanna Schenk & Andreas Oschlies & Arne Traulsen, 2018. "Immediate action is the best strategy when facing uncertain climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04968-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04968-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Rui & Wang, Xianjia & Liu, Yang & Zhao, Jinhua & Gu, Cuiling, 2023. "Evolutionary games with environmental feedbacks under an external incentive mechanism," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Tao Wang & Jianzhong Yan & Xian Cheng & Yi Yu, 2020. "Irrigation Influencing Farmers’ Perceptions of Temperature and Precipitation: A Comparative Study of Two Regions of the Tibetan Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Ben Balmford & Madeleine Marino & Oliver P. Hauser, 2024. "Voting Sustains Intergenerational Cooperation, Even When the Tipping Point Threshold is Ambiguous," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(1), pages 167-190, January.
    4. Roopam Shukla & Ankit Agarwal & Kamna Sachdeva & Juergen Kurths & P. K. Joshi, 2019. "Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 103-119, January.
    5. Stefano Romito & Clodia Vurro & Stefano Pogutz, 2024. "Joining multi‐stakeholder initiatives to fight climate change: The environmental impact of corporate participation in the Science Based Targets initiative," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 2817-2831, May.
    6. Maria Kleshnina & Christian Hilbe & Štěpán Šimsa & Krishnendu Chatterjee & Martin A. Nowak, 2023. "The effect of environmental information on evolution of cooperation in stochastic games," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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