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A new interhemispheric teleconnection increases predictability of winter precipitation in southwestern US

Author

Listed:
  • Antonios Mamalakis

    (University of California)

  • Jin-Yi Yu

    (University of California)

  • James T. Randerson

    (University of California)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

    (University of California
    University of California)

Abstract

Reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Winter precipitation in the SWUS has been linked to several climate modes, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with limited predictive ability. Here we report evidence that late-summer sea surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies close to New Zealand exhibit higher correlation with SWUS winter precipitation than ENSO, enhancing the potential for earlier and more accurate prediction. The teleconnection depends on a western Pacific ocean-atmosphere pathway, whereby sea surface temperature anomalies propagate from the southern to the northern hemisphere during boreal summer. Analysis also shows an amplification of this new teleconnection over the past four decades. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Mamalakis & Jin-Yi Yu & James T. Randerson & Amir AghaKouchak & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, 2018. "A new interhemispheric teleconnection increases predictability of winter precipitation in southwestern US," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04722-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04722-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Phong V. V. Le & James T. Randerson & Rebecca Willett & Stephen Wright & Padhraic Smyth & Clément Guilloteau & Antonios Mamalakis & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, 2023. "Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Jongsung Kim & Myungjin Lee & Heechan Han & Donghyun Kim & Yunghye Bae & Hung Soo Kim, 2022. "Case Study: Development of the CNN Model Considering Teleconnection for Spatial Downscaling of Precipitation in a Climate Change Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Junyao Zhang & Ning Yao & Yi Li & Feng Li & Bakhtiyor Pulatov, 2022. "Effects of Different Socioeconomic Development Levels on Extreme Precipitation Events in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.

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