IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v9y2018i1d10.1038_s41467-018-03789-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming

Author

Listed:
  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Guojian Wang

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Bolan Gan

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Agus Santoso

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Xiaopei Lin

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Fan Jia

    (Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Toshio Yamagata

    (JAMSTEC)

Abstract

Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Niño. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 °C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Niño frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Niño preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenju Cai & Guojian Wang & Bolan Gan & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Xiaopei Lin & Zhaohui Chen & Fan Jia & Toshio Yamagata, 2018. "Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03789-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03789-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03789-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.