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Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault

Author

Listed:
  • Ekbal Hussain

    (University of Leeds)

  • Tim J. Wright

    (University of Leeds)

  • Richard J. Walters

    (Durham University)

  • David P. S. Bekaert

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Ryan Lloyd

    (University of Bristol)

  • Andrew Hooper

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Earthquakes are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation rates calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an earthquake. The shear strain rate history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~1020 Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekbal Hussain & Tim J. Wright & Richard J. Walters & David P. S. Bekaert & Ryan Lloyd & Andrew Hooper, 2018. "Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03739-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03739-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin Shen & Andrew Hooper & John R. Elliott & Tim J. Wright, 2024. "Variability in interseismic strain accumulation rate and style along the Altyn Tagh Fault," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Yongsheng Li & Wenliang Jiang & Jingfa Zhang, 2022. "A time series processing chain for geological disasters based on a GPU-assisted sentinel-1 InSAR processor," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 803-815, March.

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