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Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations

Author

Listed:
  • Matias Heino

    (Aalto University)

  • Michael J. Puma

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Columbia University)

  • Philip J. Ward

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Research Domain of Earth System Analysis
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Vera Heck

    (Aalto University
    Research Domain of Earth System Analysis)

  • Stefan Siebert

    (University of Bonn
    University of Göttingen)

  • Matti Kummu

    (Aalto University)

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015–2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961–2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

Suggested Citation

  • Matias Heino & Michael J. Puma & Philip J. Ward & Dieter Gerten & Vera Heck & Stefan Siebert & Matti Kummu, 2018. "Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-02071-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02071-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Anjar Dimara Sakti & Wataru Takeuchi, 2020. "A Data-Intensive Approach to Address Food Sustainability: Integrating Optic and Microwave Satellite Imagery for Developing Long-Term Global Cropping Intensity and Sowing Month from 2001 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Houria Abahous & Lhoussaine Bouchaou & Abdelghani Chehbouni, 2021. "Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.

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