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Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn

Author

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  • Marika M. Holland

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Laura Landrum

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Marilyn Raphael

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Sharon Stammerjohn

    (University of Colorado)

Abstract

Autumn sea ice trends in the western Ross Sea dominate increases in Antarctic sea ice and are outside the range simulated by climate models. Here we use a number of independent data sets to show that variability in western Ross Sea autumn ice conditions is largely driven by springtime zonal winds in the high latitude South Pacific, with a lead-time of 5 months. Enhanced zonal winds dynamically thin the ice, allowing an earlier melt out, enhanced solar absorption, and reduced ice cover the next autumn. This seasonal lag relationship has implications for sea ice prediction. Given a weakening trend in springtime zonal winds, this lagged relationship can also explain an important fraction of the observed sea ice increase. An analysis of climate models indicates that they simulate weaker relationships and wind trends than observed. This contributes to weak western Ross Sea ice trends in climate model simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Marika M. Holland & Laura Landrum & Marilyn Raphael & Sharon Stammerjohn, 2017. "Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00820-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenza Himmich & Martin Vancoppenolle & Gurvan Madec & Jean-Baptiste Sallée & Paul R. Holland & Marion Lebrun, 2023. "Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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