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Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

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  • T.I.E. Veldkamp

    (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Y. Wada

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Utrecht University)

  • J.C.J.H. Aerts

    (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    University of California–Santa Barbara)

  • P. Döll

    (Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt
    Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (BiK-F))

  • S. N. Gosling

    (School of Geography, University of Nottingham)

  • J. Liu

    (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Y. Masaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    Hirosaki University)

  • T. Oki

    (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo)

  • S. Ostberg

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Y. Pokhrel

    (Michigan State University, East Lansing)

  • Y. Satoh

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • H. Kim

    (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo)

  • P. J. Ward

    (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

Suggested Citation

  • T.I.E. Veldkamp & Y. Wada & J.C.J.H. Aerts & P. Döll & S. N. Gosling & J. Liu & Y. Masaki & T. Oki & S. Ostberg & Y. Pokhrel & Y. Satoh & H. Kim & P. J. Ward, 2017. "Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15697
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15697
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    Cited by:

    1. Sekela Twisa & Manfred F. Buchroithner, 2019. "Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) Change Detection in Wami River Basin, Tanzania," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Schmitt, Rafael Jan Pablo & Rosa, Lorenzo, 2024. "Dams for hydropower and irrigation: Trends, challenges, and alternatives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Zajac, Zuzanna & Gomez, Oscar & Gelati, Emiliano & van der Velde, Marijn & Bassu, Simona & Ceglar, Andrej & Chukaliev, Ordan & Panarello, Lorenzo & Koeble, Renate & van den Berg, Maurits & Niemeyer, S, 2022. "Estimation of spatial distribution of irrigated crop areas in Europe for large-scale modelling applications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Mengjie Yang & Kai Yang & Yue Che & Shiqiang Lu & Fengyun Sun & Ying Chen & Mengting Li, 2021. "Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3321-3338, August.
    5. Andreas Nicolaidis Lindqvist & Sarah Broberg & Linda Tufvesson & Sammar Khalil & Thomas Prade, 2019. "Bio-Based Production Systems: Why Environmental Assessment Needs to Include Supporting Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-26, August.
    6. Xuechun Yang & Sai Liang & Jianchuan Qi & Cuiyang Feng & Shen Qu & Ming Xu, 2021. "Identifying sectoral impacts on global scarce water uses from multiple perspectives," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1503-1517, December.

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