IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v8y2017i1d10.1038_ncomms15399.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Cotto

    (University of Zurich
    CEFE-CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende)

  • Johannes Wessely

    (Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna)

  • Damien Georges

    (Univesity Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine)

  • Günther Klonner

    (Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna)

  • Max Schmid

    (University of Zurich)

  • Stefan Dullinger

    (Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna)

  • Wilfried Thuiller

    (Univesity Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine)

  • Frédéric Guillaume

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species’ ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species’ range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species’ responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species’ local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species’ extinction risks under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Cotto & Johannes Wessely & Damien Georges & Günther Klonner & Max Schmid & Stefan Dullinger & Wilfried Thuiller & Frédéric Guillaume, 2017. "A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15399
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15399
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15399
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/ncomms15399?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Drielsma, Michael J. & Love, Jamie & Williams, Kristen J. & Manion, Glenn & Saremi, Hanieh & Harwood, Tom & Robb, Janeen, 2017. "Bridging the gap between climate science and regional-scale biodiversity conservation in south-eastern Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 343-362.
    2. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    3. repec:arp:sjavsm:2021:p:85-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Moullec, Fabien & Barrier, Nicolas & Drira, Sabrine & Guilhaumon, François & Hattab, Tarek & Peck, Myron A. & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2022. "Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.