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Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

Author

Listed:
  • K. L. Sheen

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office
    University of Exeter)

  • D. M. Smith

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office)

  • N. J. Dunstone

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office)

  • R. Eade

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office)

  • D. P. Rowell

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office)

  • M. Vellinga

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office)

Abstract

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • K. L. Sheen & D. M. Smith & N. J. Dunstone & R. Eade & D. P. Rowell & M. Vellinga, 2017. "Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14966
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14966
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    Cited by:

    1. António Freire Diogo & Ricardo Alves Resende & António Luís Oliveira, 2021. "Optimised Selection of Water Supply and Irrigation Sources—A Case Study on Surface and Underground Water, Desalination, and Wastewater Reuse in a Sahelian Coastal Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-24, November.

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