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Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard

Author

Listed:
  • R. Emerton

    (University of Reading
    University of Reading
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • H. L. Cloke

    (University of Reading
    University of Reading)

  • E. M. Stephens

    (University of Reading)

  • E. Zsoter

    (University of Reading
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • S. J. Woolnough

    (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

  • F. Pappenberger

    (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña events, the extremes of ENSO climate variability, influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. Estimates of the historical probability of extreme (high or low) precipitation are used to provide vital information on the likelihood of adverse impacts during extreme ENSO events. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude motivates the need for estimation of historical probabilities using analysis of hydrological data sets. Here, this analysis is undertaken using the ERA-20CM-R river flow reconstruction for the twentieth century. Our results show that the likelihood of increased or decreased flood hazard during ENSO events is much more complex than is often perceived and reported; probabilities vary greatly across the globe, with large uncertainties inherent in the data and clear differences when comparing the hydrological analysis to precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Emerton & H. L. Cloke & E. M. Stephens & E. Zsoter & S. J. Woolnough & F. Pappenberger, 2017. "Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14796
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14796
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    Cited by:

    1. Cha Zhao & François Brissette, 2022. "Impacts of large-scale oscillations on climate variability over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    2. I. Fustos & R. Abarca-del-Rio & P. Moreno-Yaeger & M. Somos-Valenzuela, 2020. "Rainfall-Induced Landslides forecast using local precipitation and global climate indexes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 115-131, May.

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