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Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

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  • Thomas R. Knutson

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Rong Zhang

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Larry W. Horowitz

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

Abstract

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models’ warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Knutson & Rong Zhang & Larry W. Horowitz, 2016. "Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms13676
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13676
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    Cited by:

    1. Behnam Mirgol & Meisam Nazari & Mohammad Eteghadipour, 2020. "Modelling Climate Change Impact on Irrigation Water Requirement and Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.), Barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.), and Fodder Maize ( Zea mays L.) in the Semi-Arid Qazvin," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Xiaoqing Shi & Tianling Qin & Hanjiang Nie & Baisha Weng & Shan He, 2019. "Changes in Major Global River Discharges Directed into the Ocean," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Ireneusz Cymes & Ewa Dragańska & Zbigniew Brodziński, 2022. "Potential Possibilities of Using Groundwater for Crop Irrigation in the Context of Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-14, May.
    4. J. Isaac Miller & Kyungsik Nam, 2019. "Dating Hiatuses: A Statistical Model of the Recent Slowdown in Global Warming – and the Next One," Working Papers 1903, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

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