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Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria

Author

Listed:
  • Wim Thiery

    (KU Leuven
    ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Edouard L. Davin

    (ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Kristopher Bedka

    (NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, 21 Langley Boulevard)

  • Stef Lhermitte

    (KU Leuven
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Nicole P. M. van Lipzig

    (KU Leuven)

Abstract

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Wim Thiery & Edouard L. Davin & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Kristopher Bedka & Stef Lhermitte & Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, 2016. "Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms12786
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12786
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