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Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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  • Gerald A. Meehl

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Aixue Hu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Haiyan Teng

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Meehl & Aixue Hu & Haiyan Teng, 2016. "Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms11718
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11718
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    Cited by:

    1. Johann D. Bell & Inna Senina & Timothy Adams & Olivier Aumont & Beatriz Calmettes & Sangaalofa Clark & Morgane Dessert & Marion Gehlen & Thomas Gorgues & John Hampton & Quentin Hanich & Harriet Harden, 2021. "Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 900-910, October.
    2. Maurice F. Huguenin & Ryan M. Holmes & Matthew H. England, 2022. "Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Zhi Li & Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp, 2023. "Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.

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