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Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake

Author

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  • Hongmei Li

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Tatiana Ilyina

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Wolfgang A. Müller

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Frank Sienz

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

Abstract

As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physical state of the ocean can be predicted several years in advance by initialization of Earth system models, predictability of CO2 uptake has remained unexplored. Here we investigate the predictability of CO2 uptake variations by initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. We find large multi-year variability in oceanic CO2 uptake and demonstrate that its potential predictive skill in the western subpolar gyre region is up to 4–7 years. The predictive skill is mainly maintained in winter and is attributed to the improved physical state of the ocean.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongmei Li & Tatiana Ilyina & Wolfgang A. Müller & Frank Sienz, 2016. "Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms11076
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11076
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark R. Payne & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Noel Keenlyside & Daniela Matei & Anna K. Miesner & Shuting Yang & Stephen G. Yeager, 2022. "Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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