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Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record

Author

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  • David B. Kemp

    (Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Walton Hall
    Present address: School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen, Old Aberdeen, AB24 3UE, UK)

  • Kilian Eichenseer

    (GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Fachgruppe PaläoUmwelt, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Wolfgang Kiessling

    (GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Fachgruppe PaläoUmwelt, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
    Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Research on Evolution and Biodiversity at the Humboldt University Berlin)

Abstract

Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (102 to >107 years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

Suggested Citation

  • David B. Kemp & Kilian Eichenseer & Wolfgang Kiessling, 2015. "Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9890
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9890
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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Orlov & Marija Menshakova & Tomas Thierfelder & Yulia Zaika & Sepp Böhme & Birgitta Evengard & Natalia Pshenichnaya, 2020. "Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health—A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-11, November.
    2. Terry T. Isson & Shuang Zhang & Kimberly V. Lau & Sofia Rauzi & Nicholas J. Tosca & Donald E. Penman & Noah J. Planavsky, 2022. "Marine siliceous ecosystem decline led to sustained anomalous Early Triassic warmth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

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