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Combined effects of recent Pacific cooling and Indian Ocean warming on the Asian monsoon

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroaki Ueda

    (Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

  • Youichi Kamae

    (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies
    Present address: Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, California 92093-0206, USA)

  • Masamitsu Hayasaki

    (Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
    Present address: Center for Regional Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan)

  • Akio Kitoh

    (Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

  • Shigeru Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

  • Yurisa Miki

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

  • Atsuki Kumai

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

Abstract

Recent research indicates that the cooling trend in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past 15 years underlies the contemporaneous hiatus in global mean temperature increase. During the hiatus, the tropical Pacific Ocean displays a La Niña-like cooling pattern while sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean has continued to increase. This SST pattern differs from the well-known La Niña-induced basin-wide cooling across the Indian Ocean on the interannual timescale. Here, based on model experiments, we show that the SST pattern during the hiatus explains pronounced regional anomalies of rainfall in the Asian monsoon region and thermodynamic effects due to specific humidity change are secondary. Specifically, Indo-Pacific SST anomalies cause convection to intensify over the tropical western Pacific, which in turn suppresses rainfall in mid-latitude East Asia through atmospheric teleconnection. Overall, the tropical Pacific SST effect opposes and is greater than the Indian Ocean SST effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroaki Ueda & Youichi Kamae & Masamitsu Hayasaki & Akio Kitoh & Shigeru Watanabe & Yurisa Miki & Atsuki Kumai, 2015. "Combined effects of recent Pacific cooling and Indian Ocean warming on the Asian monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9854
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9854
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