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Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

Author

Listed:
  • Natalya Gomez

    (Center for Atmosphere Ocean Sciences, Couratnt Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
    McGill University)

  • David Pollard

    (Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park)

  • David Holland

    (Center for Atmosphere Ocean Sciences, Couratnt Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University)

Abstract

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalya Gomez & David Pollard & David Holland, 2015. "Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9798
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9798
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael E. Weber & Nicholas R. Golledge & Chris J. Fogwill & Chris S. M. Turney & Zoë A. Thomas, 2021. "Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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