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Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Ping Huang

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS))

  • I. -I Lin

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Chia Chou

    (Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica)

  • Rong-Hui Huang

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC’s intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Huang & I. -I Lin & Chia Chou & Rong-Hui Huang, 2015. "Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms8188
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8188
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    Cited by:

    1. Cong Gao & Lei Zhou & Chunzai Wang & I.-I. Lin & Raghu Murtugudde, 2022. "Unexpected limitation of tropical cyclone genesis by subsurface tropical central-north Pacific during El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Ya-Ting Chang & I-I Lin & Hsiao-Ching Huang & Yi-Chun Liao & Chun-Chi Lien, 2020. "The Association of Typhoon Intensity Increase with Translation Speed Increase in the South China Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Cong Gao & Lei Zhou & I.-I. Lin & Chunzai Wang & Shoude Guan & Fei-Fei Jin & Raghu Murtugudde, 2025. "Crucial role of subsurface ocean variability in tropical cyclone genesis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Mingsen Zhou & Chunxia Liu & Guangfeng Dai & Huijun Huang & Qingtao Song & Mengjie Li, 2025. "A real-time storm surge prediction system for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area under the background of typhoons: model setup and validation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 3473-3498, February.
    5. Zhenning Li & Jimmy C. H. Fung & Mau Fung Wong & Shangfei Lin & Fenying Cai & Wenfeng Lai & Alexis K. H. Lau, 2024. "Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: an air-wave-ocean coupled model study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 7139-7154, June.
    6. Thomas R. Knutson & Joseph J. Sirutis & Morris A. Bender & Robert E. Tuleya & Benjamin A. Schenkel, 2022. "Dynamical downscaling projections of late twenty-first-century U.S. landfalling hurricane activity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Iam-Fei Pun & Johnny C. L. Chan & I.-I. Lin & Kelvin T. F. Chan & James F. Price & Dong Shan Ko & Chun-Chi Lien & Yu-Lun Wu & Hsiao-Ching Huang, 2019. "Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) over Shallow Water," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Jing Xu & Ping Zhao & Johnny C. L. Chan & Mingyuan Shi & Chi Yang & Siyu Zhao & Ying Xu & Junming Chen & Ling Du & Jie Wu & Jiaxin Ye & Rui Xing & Huimei Wang & Lu Liu, 2024. "Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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