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Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

Author

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  • I-I Lin

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Johnny C.L. Chan

    (Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons’ environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened’ at the same time. The ‘worsened’ atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better’ ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • I-I Lin & Johnny C.L. Chan, 2015. "Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms8182
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8182
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    Cited by:

    1. Ya-Ting Chang & I-I Lin & Hsiao-Ching Huang & Yi-Chun Liao & Chun-Chi Lien, 2020. "The Association of Typhoon Intensity Increase with Translation Speed Increase in the South China Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Iam-Fei Pun & Johnny C. L. Chan & I.-I. Lin & Kelvin T. F. Chan & James F. Price & Dong Shan Ko & Chun-Chi Lien & Yu-Lun Wu & Hsiao-Ching Huang, 2019. "Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) over Shallow Water," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Doo-Sun R. Park & Chang-Hoi Ho & Jinwon Kim & KiRyong Kang & Chaehyeon C. Nam, 2016. "Highlighting socioeconomic damages caused by weakened tropical cyclones in the Republic of Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1301-1315, June.

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