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Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

Author

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  • Péter K. Molnár

    (University of Alberta
    University of Alberta
    Present address: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.)

  • Andrew E. Derocher

    (University of Alberta)

  • Tin Klanjscek

    (Ruđer Bošković Institute, P.O. Box 180, Bijenicčka 54, HR-10002 Zagreb, Croatia.)

  • Mark A. Lewis

    (University of Alberta
    University of Alberta)

Abstract

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter K. Molnár & Andrew E. Derocher & Tin Klanjscek & Mark A. Lewis, 2011. "Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:2:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms1183
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1183
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony M. Pagano & Karyn D. Rode & Nicholas J. Lunn & David McGeachy & Stephen N. Atkinson & Sean D. Farley & Joy A. Erlenbach & Charles T. Robbins, 2024. "Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Sangare, Nathanaël & Lo-Yat, Alain & Moullac, Gilles Le & Pecquerie, Laure & Thomas, Yoann & Lefebvre, Sébastien & Gendre, Romain Le & Beliaeff, Benoît & Andréfouët, Serge, 2020. "Impact of environmental variability on Pinctada margaritifera life-history traits: A full life cycle deb modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 423(C).

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