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Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats

Author

Listed:
  • Nur Arafeh-Dalmau

    (Stanford University
    University of California Los Angeles
    University of Queensland
    MasKelp Foundation)

  • Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez

    (Stanford University
    University of Miami
    University of Miami)

  • David S. Schoeman

    (University of the Sunshine Coast
    Nelson Mandela University)

  • Alejandra Mora-Soto

    (Seaweed Specialist Group
    University of Victoria)

  • Tom W. Bell

    (Woods Hole)

  • Claire L. Butler

    (University of Tasmania)

  • Maycira Costa

    (University of Victoria)

  • Loyiso V. Dunga

    (Seaweed Specialist Group
    University of Cape Town
    South African National Biodiversity Institute
    Nelson Mandela University)

  • Henry F. Houskeeper

    (Woods Hole)

  • Cristian Lagger

    (Ecología Marina
    Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA))

  • Carolina Pantano

    (Fundación Por El Mar (PEM))

  • Daniela Laínez Pozo

    (Sociedad, Ecología y Cultura)

  • Kerry J. Sink

    (South African National Biodiversity Institute
    Nelson Mandela University)

  • Jennifer Sletten

    (Anthropocene Institute)

  • Timothe Vincent

    (Anthropocene Institute)

  • Fiorenza Micheli

    (Stanford University
    Stanford University)

  • Kyle C. Cavanaugh

    (University of California Los Angeles)

Abstract

Kelp forests are one of the earth’s most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081–2100) compared to contemporary (2001–2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Nur Arafeh-Dalmau & Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez & David S. Schoeman & Alejandra Mora-Soto & Tom W. Bell & Claire L. Butler & Maycira Costa & Loyiso V. Dunga & Henry F. Houskeeper & Cristian Lagger &, 2025. "Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58054-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58054-4
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