Estimation of energy efficiency of heat pumps in residential buildings using real operation data

As heat pumps become more prevalent in residential buildings, effective performance monitoring is essential. Design flaws, incorrect settings, and faults can escalate energy consumption and costs, leading to discrepancies in user expectations and hindering the widespread adoption of this technology crucial for the heating transition. However, field studies using large data sets to offer insights into real-world performance and methods for identifying low-performing systems in practical, scalable applications are lacking. In the largest field study to date, we analyze sensor data from 1023 heat pumps across Central Europe monitored over two years. Based on existing approaches for controlled laboratory conditions, we derive methods to evaluate and classify real-world performance using operational data. Applying these methods, we find that 17% of air-source and 2% of ground-source heat pumps do not meet existing efficiency standards. Additionally, around 10% of systems are oversized, while approximately 1% are undersized. This underscores the need for standardized post-installation performance evaluation procedures and digital tools to provide actionable feedback for users and installers to enhance operational efficiency and guide future installations.