A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18th, 15th, and 14th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14th and 18th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.