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How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Kelder

    (Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS)
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Dorothy Heinrich

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
    University of Reading)

  • Lisette Klok

    (Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS))

  • Vikki Thompson

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Henrique M. D. Goulart

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Deltares)

  • Ed Hawkins

    (University of Reading)

  • Louise J. Slater

    (University of Oxford)

  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez

    (ETH Zurich
    CNRS)

  • Robert L. Wilby

    (Loughborough University)

  • Erin Coughlan de Perez

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
    Tufts University)

  • Elisabeth M. Stephens

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
    University of Reading)

  • Stephen Burt

    (University of Reading)

  • Bart Hurk

    (Deltares)

  • Hylke Vries

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Karin Wiel

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • E. Lisa F. Schipper

    (University of Bonn)

  • Antonio Carmona Baéz

    (University of St. Martin (USM))

  • Ellen Bueren

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Kelder & Dorothy Heinrich & Lisette Klok & Vikki Thompson & Henrique M. D. Goulart & Ed Hawkins & Louise J. Slater & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Robert L. Wilby & Erin Coughlan de Perez & Elisabeth , 2025. "How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57450-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
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