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Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO

Author

Listed:
  • Chuanyu Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Fan Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)
    Laoshan Laboratory
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS))

  • Armin Köhl

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Xiaowei Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS))

  • Chunzai Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Kelvin J. Richards

    (University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

Abstract

Since the 21st century, the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits more pronounced signals in the central Pacific (CP) rather than the eastern Pacific (EP), but the prediction skill has waned, suggesting limited understanding of crucial dynamics within the prediction framework. The ocean mixing around the mixed layer base, which transfers heat downward in a diabatic manner, was considered a potential influencing factor; yet, its effect has not been adequately examined in either CP or EP regions due to insufficient data. Here, we propose an Argo profile data-based mixing estimation model, which yields abundant estimates of subsurface ocean mixing and turbulent heat flux. Consequently, we find significant positive feedback of the ocean mixing-induced diabatic warming/cooling on the CP ENSO, but not on the EP ENSO. Particularly, the diabatic effect dominates sea surface temperature change in the CP region, highlighting the necessity for diabatic CP ENSO positive feedback dynamics in prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuanyu Liu & Fan Wang & Armin Köhl & Xiaowei Wang & Chunzai Wang & Kelvin J. Richards, 2025. "Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57058-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57058-4
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