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The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century

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  • Yuting Zhang

    (Exhibition Road)

  • Christopher Jackson

    (Exhibition Road)

  • Samuel Krevor

    (Exhibition Road)

Abstract

The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects subsurface carbon storage at rates of 1 – 30 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050. These projections, however, overlook potential geological, geographical, and techno-economic limitations to growth. We evaluate the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage using a geographically resolved growth model that considers constraints from both geology and scale-up rate. Our results suggest a maximum global storage rate of 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050, but this is contingent on the United States contributing 60% of the total. These values contrast with projections in the Sixth Assessment Report that vastly overestimate the feasibility of deployment in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. A feasible benchmark for global CO2 storage projections, and consistent with current government technology roadmaps, suggests a global storage rate of 5-6 GtCO2 yr−1, with the United States contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr−1.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuting Zhang & Christopher Jackson & Samuel Krevor, 2024. "The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51226-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8
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