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Rethinking time-lagged emissions and abatement potential of fluorocarbons in the post-Kigali Amendment era

Author

Listed:
  • Heping Liu

    (Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology)

  • Huabo Duan

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Ning Zhang

    (Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER))

  • Yin Ma

    (Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology)

  • Gang Liu

    (Peking University
    Peking University)

  • Travis Reed Miller

    (University of Maine)

  • Ruichang Mao

    (Technical University of Denmark)

  • Ming Xu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jinhui Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jiakuan Yang

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

The Montreal Protocol has been successful in safeguarding the ozone layer and curbing climate change. However, accurately estimating and reducing the time-lagged emissions of ozone-depleting substances or their substitutes, such as produced but not-yet-emitted fluorocarbon banks, remains a significant challenge. Here, we use a dynamic material flow analysis model to characterize the global stocks and flows of two fluorocarbon categories, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), from 1986 to 2060. We assess emission pathways, time-lagged emission sizes, and potential abatement measures throughout different life cycle stages while focusing on the role of banked fluorocarbons in global and regional decarbonization efforts in the post-Kigali Amendment era. Although fluorocarbon releases are expected to decline, the cumulative global warming potential (GWP)-weighted emissions of HCFCs and HFCs are significant; these will be 6.4 (±1.2) and 14.8 (±2.5) gigatons CO2-equivalent, respectively, in 2022–2060 in our business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Scenario analysis demonstrates that implementing currently available best environmental practices in developed economies can reduce cumulative GWP-weighted emissions by up to 45% compared with the BAU scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Heping Liu & Huabo Duan & Ning Zhang & Yin Ma & Gang Liu & Travis Reed Miller & Ruichang Mao & Ming Xu & Jinhui Li & Jiakuan Yang, 2024. "Rethinking time-lagged emissions and abatement potential of fluorocarbons in the post-Kigali Amendment era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51113-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51113-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul W. Barnes & Craig E. Williamson & Robyn M. Lucas & Sharon A. Robinson & Sasha Madronich & Nigel D. Paul & Janet F. Bornman & Alkiviadis F. Bais & Barbara Sulzberger & Stephen R. Wilson & Anthony , 2019. "Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change and prospects for a sustainable future," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 569-579, July.
    2. Paul J. Young & Anna B. Harper & Chris Huntingford & Nigel D. Paul & Olaf Morgenstern & Paul A. Newman & Luke D. Oman & Sasha Madronich & Rolando R. Garcia, 2021. "The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7872), pages 384-388, August.
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