IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-48180-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew T. Berry

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Shanchita R. Khan

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Timothy E. Schlub

    (University of New South Wales
    University of Sydney)

  • Adriana Notaras

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Mohana Kunasekaran

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Andrew E. Grulich

    (University of New South Wales)

  • C. Raina MacIntyre

    (University of New South Wales
    Arizona State University)

  • Miles P. Davenport

    (University of New South Wales)

  • David S. Khoury

    (University of New South Wales)

Abstract

The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew T. Berry & Shanchita R. Khan & Timothy E. Schlub & Adriana Notaras & Mohana Kunasekaran & Andrew E. Grulich & C. Raina MacIntyre & Miles P. Davenport & David S. Khoury, 2024. "Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48180-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48180-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48180-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-48180-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eva Stadler & Martin T. Burgess & Timothy E. Schlub & Shanchita R. Khan & Khai Li Chai & Zoe K. McQuilten & Erica M. Wood & Mark N. Polizzotto & Stephen J. Kent & Deborah Cromer & Miles P. Davenport &, 2023. "Monoclonal antibody levels and protection from COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      More about this item

      Statistics

      Access and download statistics

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48180-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.