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The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Valentina Marziano

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Alessia Mammone

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Andrea Siddu

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Federica Ferraro

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Anna Caraglia

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Francesco Maraglino

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Giovanni Rezza

    (Ministry of Health
    Vita-Salute San Raffaele University)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (Northeastern University)

  • Ira Longini

    (University of Florida)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

Abstract

In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model accounts for transmission within the MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and sex clubs attended by MSM, and in households. We indicate a strong spontaneous reduction in sexual transmission (61-87%) in affected MSM communities as the possible driving factor for the rapid decline in cases. The MSM sexual contact network was the main responsible for transmission (about 80%), with clubs and households contributing residually. Contact tracing prevented about half of the potential cases, and a higher success rate in tracing contacts could significantly amplify its effectiveness. Notably, immunizing the 23% of MSM with the highest sexual activity (10 or more partners per year) could completely prevent new mpox resurgences. This research underscores the importance of augmenting contact tracing, targeted immunization campaigns of high-risk groups, and fostering reactive behavioral changes as key strategies to manage and prevent the spread of emerging sexually transmitted pathogens like mpox within the MSM community.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Guzzetta & Valentina Marziano & Alessia Mammone & Andrea Siddu & Federica Ferraro & Anna Caraglia & Francesco Maraglino & Giovanni Rezza & Alessandro Vespignani & Ira Longini & Marco Ajelli & , 2024. "The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46590-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46590-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabbar, Yassine, 2024. "Exploring threshold dynamics of a behavioral epidemic model featuring two susceptible classes and second-order jump–diffusion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

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