IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-45016-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuomin Chen

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences)

  • Samantha Siedlecki

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences)

  • Matthew Long

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Colleen M. Petrik

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Charles A. Stock

    (NOAA, Princeton University)

  • Curtis A. Deutsch

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuomin Chen & Samantha Siedlecki & Matthew Long & Colleen M. Petrik & Charles A. Stock & Curtis A. Deutsch, 2024. "Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45016-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45016-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riley X. Brady & Nicole S. Lovenduski & Stephen G. Yeager & Matthew C. Long & Keith Lindsay, 2020. "Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Curtis Deutsch & Justin L. Penn & Brad Seibel, 2020. "Metabolic trait diversity shapes marine biogeography," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 557-562, September.
    3. Janet A. Nye & Terrence M. Joyce & Young-Oh Kwon & Jason S. Link, 2011. "Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark R. Payne, 2024. "Opening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-2, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nye, Janet A. & Gamble, Robert J. & Link, Jason S., 2013. "The relative impact of warming and removing top predators on the Northeast US large marine biotic community," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 157-168.
    2. Shigeto Nishino & Jinyoung Jung & Kyoung-Ho Cho & William J. Williams & Amane Fujiwara & Akihiko Murata & Motoyo Itoh & Eiji Watanabe & Michio Aoyama & Michiyo Yamamoto-Kawai & Takashi Kikuchi & Eun J, 2023. "Atlantic-origin water extension into the Pacific Arctic induced an anomalous biogeochemical event," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Sarah T. Friedman & Martha M. Muñoz, 2023. "A latitudinal gradient of deep-sea invasions for marine fishes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Murray I. Duncan & Fiorenza Micheli & Thomas H. Boag & J. Andres Marquez & Hailey Deres & Curtis A. Deutsch & Erik A. Sperling, 2023. "Oxygen availability and body mass modulate ectotherm responses to ocean warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Jia Zheng & Ning Guo & Yuxiang Huang & Xiang Guo & Andreas Wagner, 2024. "High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Harvey J Walsh & David E Richardson & Katrin E Marancik & Jonathan A Hare, 2015. "Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-31, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45016-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.