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Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen

Author

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  • Zhuomin Chen

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences)

  • Samantha Siedlecki

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences)

  • Matthew Long

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Colleen M. Petrik

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Charles A. Stock

    (NOAA, Princeton University)

  • Curtis A. Deutsch

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuomin Chen & Samantha Siedlecki & Matthew Long & Colleen M. Petrik & Charles A. Stock & Curtis A. Deutsch, 2024. "Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45016-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riley X. Brady & Nicole S. Lovenduski & Stephen G. Yeager & Matthew C. Long & Keith Lindsay, 2020. "Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Curtis Deutsch & Justin L. Penn & Brad Seibel, 2020. "Metabolic trait diversity shapes marine biogeography," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 557-562, September.
    3. Janet A. Nye & Terrence M. Joyce & Young-Oh Kwon & Jason S. Link, 2011. "Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark R. Payne, 2024. "Opening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-2, December.

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