IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-42410-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deterministic full-scenario analysis for maximum credible earthquake hazards

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang-Chao Wang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jin-Ting Wang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chu-Han Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Great earthquakes are one of the major threats to modern society due to their great destructive power and unpredictability. The maximum credible earthquake (MCE) for a specific fault, i.e., the largest magnitude earthquake that may occur there, has numerous potential scenarios with different source processes, making the future seismic hazard highly uncertain. We propose a full-scenario analysis method to evaluate the MCE hazards with deterministic broadband simulations of numerous scenarios. The full-scenario analysis is achieved by considering all uncertainties of potential future earthquakes with sufficient scenarios. Here we show an application of this method in the seismic hazard analysis for the Xiluodu dam in China by simulating 22,000,000 MCE scenarios in 0–10 Hz. The proposed method can provide arbitrary intensity measures, ground-motion time series, and spatial ground-motion fields for all hazard levels, which enables more realistic and accurate MCE hazard evaluations, and thus has great application potential in earthquake engineering.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang-Chao Wang & Jin-Ting Wang & Chu-Han Zhang, 2023. "Deterministic full-scenario analysis for maximum credible earthquake hazards," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42410-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42410-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42410-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-42410-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min Chen & Fenglin Niu & Jeroen Tromp & Adrian Lenardic & Cin-Ty A. Lee & Wenrong Cao & Julia Ribeiro, 2017. "Lithospheric foundering and underthrusting imaged beneath Tibet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John J. Y. He & Paul Kapp, 2023. "Basin record of a Miocene lithosphere drip beneath the Colorado Plateau," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Bingfeng Zhang & Xuewei Bao & Yingkai Wu & Yixian Xu & Wencai Yang, 2023. "Southern Tibetan rifting since late Miocene enabled by basal shear of the underthrusting Indian lithosphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42410-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.