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Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation

Author

Listed:
  • Ruiqiang Ding

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Yu‐Heng Tseng

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Emanuele Lorenzo

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Liang Shi

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Jianping Li

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Jin-Yi Yu

    (University of California)

  • Chunzai Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Cheng Sun

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Jing-Jia Luo

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Kyung‑Ja Ha

    (Pusan National University)

  • Zeng-Zhen Hu

    (Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA)

  • Feifei Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiqiang Ding & Yu‐Heng Tseng & Emanuele Lorenzo & Liang Shi & Jianping Li & Jin-Yi Yu & Chunzai Wang & Cheng Sun & Jing-Jia Luo & Kyung‑Ja Ha & Zeng-Zhen Hu & Feifei Li, 2022. "Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31516-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31516-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Austin P.C. & Tu J.V., 2004. "Bootstrap Methods for Developing Predictive Models," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 131-137, May.
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