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Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author

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  • Ching-I Huang

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick)

  • Ronald E. Crump

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick
    The School of Life Sciences, The University of Warwick)

  • Paul E. Brown

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick)

  • Simon E. F. Spencer

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    The University of Warwick)

  • Erick Mwamba Miaka

    (Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA))

  • Chansy Shampa

    (Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA))

  • Matt J. Keeling

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick
    The School of Life Sciences, The University of Warwick)

  • Kat S. Rock

    (Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick
    Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick)

Abstract

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Median projected years of elimination of transmission show only 98 health zones are on track despite significant reduction in disease burden under medical-only strategies (64 health zones if > 90% certainty required). Blanket coverage with vector control is impractical, but is predicted to reach the target in all heath zones. Utilising projected disease burden under the uniform medical-only strategy, we provide a priority list of health zones for consideration for supplementary vector control alongside medical interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ching-I Huang & Ronald E. Crump & Paul E. Brown & Simon E. F. Spencer & Erick Mwamba Miaka & Chansy Shampa & Matt J. Keeling & Kat S. Rock, 2022. "Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29192-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29192-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew R Behrend & María-Gloria Basáñez & Jonathan I D Hamley & Travis C Porco & Wilma A Stolk & Martin Walker & Sake J de Vlas & for the NTD Modelling Consortium, 2020. "Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Harwin de Vries & Albert P M Wagelmans & Epco Hasker & Crispin Lumbala & Pascal Lutumba & Sake J de Vlas & Joris van de Klundert, 2016. "Forecasting Human African Trypanosomiasis Prevalences from Population Screening Data Using Continuous Time Models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, September.
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