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Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Quan-Hui Liu

    (Sichuan University)

  • Juanjuan Zhang

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
    Fudan University
    Fudan University)

  • Cheng Peng

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Maria Litvinova

    (Indiana University School of Public Health)

  • Shudong Huang

    (Sichuan University)

  • Piero Poletti

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Filippo Trentini

    (Bocconi University)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Valentina Marziano

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Tao Zhou

    (University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)

  • Cecile Viboud

    (National Institutes of Health)

  • Ana I. Bento

    (Indiana University School of Public Health)

  • Jiancheng Lv

    (Sichuan University)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (Northeastern University)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Hongjie Yu

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
    Fudan University
    Fudan University)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health)

Abstract

There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0–26.8%), due to the low probability of timely identification of infections in the young population. We thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism based on repeated screening of students using antigen tests. Depending on the contribution of schools to transmission, this strategy can greatly reduce COVID-19 burden even when school contribution to transmission and immunity in the population is low. Moving forward, the adoption of antigen-based screenings in schools could be instrumental to limit COVID-19 burden while vaccines continue to be rolled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Quan-Hui Liu & Juanjuan Zhang & Cheng Peng & Maria Litvinova & Shudong Huang & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Giorgio Guzzetta & Valentina Marziano & Tao Zhou & Cecile Viboud & Ana I. Bento & Jian, 2022. "Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27939-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27939-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Yong Dam Jeong & Keisuke Ejima & Kwang Su Kim & Woo Joohyeon & Shoya Iwanami & Yasuhisa Fujita & Il Hyo Jung & Kazuyuki Aihara & Kenji Shibuya & Shingo Iwami & Ana I. Bento & Marco Ajelli, 2022. "Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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