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Development of a model-inference system for estimating epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

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  • Wan Yang

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Jeffrey Shaman

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

Abstract

To support COVID-19 pandemic planning, we develop a model-inference system to estimate epidemiological properties of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using case and mortality data while accounting for under-ascertainment, disease seasonality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass-vaccination. Applying this system to study three variants of concern, we estimate that B.1.1.7 has a 46.6% (95% CI: 32.3–54.6%) transmissibility increase but nominal immune escape from protection induced by prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 has a 32.4% (95% CI: 14.6–48.0%) transmissibility increase and 61.3% (95% CI: 42.6–85.8%) immune escape; and P.1 has a 43.3% (95% CI: 30.3–65.3%) transmissibility increase and 52.5% (95% CI: 0–75.8%) immune escape. Model simulations indicate that B.1.351 and P.1 could outcompete B.1.1.7 and lead to increased infections. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing the spread of variants of concern, via continued preventive measures, prompt mass-vaccination, continued vaccine efficacy monitoring, and possible updating of vaccine formulations to ensure high efficacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan Yang & Jeffrey Shaman, 2021. "Development of a model-inference system for estimating epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25913-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25913-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Junya Sunagawa & Hyeongki Park & Kwang Su Kim & Ryo Komorizono & Sooyoun Choi & Lucia Ramirez Torres & Joohyeon Woo & Yong Dam Jeong & William S. Hart & Robin N. Thompson & Kazuyuki Aihara & Shingo Iw, 2023. "Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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