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Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Basheer

    (The University of Manchester)

  • Victor Nechifor

    (University College London)

  • Alvaro Calzadilla

    (University College London)

  • Khalid Siddig

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    University of Khartoum)

  • Mikiyas Etichia

    (The University of Manchester)

  • Dale Whittington

    (The University of Manchester
    University of North Carolina)

  • David Hulme

    (The University of Manchester)

  • Julien J. Harou

    (The University of Manchester
    University College London)

Abstract

The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt’s macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Basheer & Victor Nechifor & Alvaro Calzadilla & Khalid Siddig & Mikiyas Etichia & Dale Whittington & David Hulme & Julien J. Harou, 2021. "Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25877-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Dale Whittington & Richard T. Carson & Thomas Sterner, 2023. "Policy Note: Benefit Cost Analysis of Water Investments in the Anthropocene," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Bingyao Zhang & Yu Li & Chi Zhang & Chunhong Hu & Guangtao Fu & Ximing Cai, 2023. "Dual water-electricity cooperation improves economic benefits and water equality in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Kamal Abdelrahim Mohamed Shuka & Wang Ke & Mohammad Sohail Nazar & Ghali Abdullahi Abubakar & AmirReza Shahtahamssebi, 2022. "Impact of Hydrological Infrastructure Projects on Land Use/Cover and Socioeconomic Development in Arid Regions—Evidence from the Upper Atbara and Setit Dam Complex, Kassala, Eastern Sudan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.

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