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Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence

Author

Listed:
  • Emma L. Davis

    (University of Oxford)

  • Tim C. D. Lucas

    (University of Oxford)

  • Anna Borlase

    (University of Oxford)

  • Timothy M. Pollington

    (University of Oxford
    University of Warwick)

  • Sam Abbott

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Diepreye Ayabina

    (University of Oxford)

  • Thomas Crellen

    (University of Oxford)

  • Joel Hellewell

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Li Pi

    (University of Oxford)

  • Graham F. Medley

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    (University of Oxford)

  • Petra Klepac

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma L. Davis & Tim C. D. Lucas & Anna Borlase & Timothy M. Pollington & Sam Abbott & Diepreye Ayabina & Thomas Crellen & Joel Hellewell & Li Pi & Graham F. Medley & T. Déirdre Hollingsworth & Petra K, 2021. "Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25531-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Joren Raymenants & Caspar Geenen & Jonathan Thibaut & Klaas Nelissen & Sarah Gorissen & Emmanuel Andre, 2022. "Empirical evidence on the efficiency of backward contact tracing in COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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