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A comprehensive risk score for effective risk stratification and screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Author

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  • Xiang Zhou

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Su-Mei Cao

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Yong-Lin Cai

    (Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital)

  • Xiao Zhang

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Shanshan Zhang

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Guo-Fei Feng

    (First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University)

  • Yufeng Chen

    (Karolinska Institutet)

  • Qi-Sheng Feng

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Yijun Chen

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Ellen T. Chang

    (Center for Health Sciences, Exponent
    Stanford Cancer Institute)

  • Zhonghua Liu

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Hans-Olov Adami

    (Karolinska Institutet
    University of Oslo)

  • Jianjun Liu

    (Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)
    National University of Singapore)

  • Weimin Ye

    (Karolinska Institutet
    Fujian Medical University)

  • Zhe Zhang

    (First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University)

  • Yi-Xin Zeng

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

  • Miao Xu

    (Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center)

Abstract

Using Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based markers to screen populations at high risk for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an attractive preventive approach. Here, we develop a comprehensive risk score (CRS) that combines risk effects of EBV and human genetics for NPC risk stratification and validate this CRS within an independent, population-based dataset. Comparing the top decile with the bottom quintile of CRSs, the odds ratio of developing NPC is 21 (95% confidence interval: 12–37) in the validation dataset. When combining the top quintile of CRS with EBV serology tests currently used for NPC screening in southern China, the positive prediction value of screening increases from 4.70% (serology test alone) to 43.24% (CRS plus serology test). By identifying individuals at a monogenic level of NPC risk, this CRS approach provides opportunities for personalized risk prediction and population screening in endemic areas for the early diagnosis and secondary prevention of NPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Zhou & Su-Mei Cao & Yong-Lin Cai & Xiao Zhang & Shanshan Zhang & Guo-Fei Feng & Yufeng Chen & Qi-Sheng Feng & Yijun Chen & Ellen T. Chang & Zhonghua Liu & Hans-Olov Adami & Jianjun Liu & Weimin , 2021. "A comprehensive risk score for effective risk stratification and screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25402-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25402-z
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